Considerations on mortality in 2020 in Poland in the context of the coronavirus pandemic

Introduction
This study presents an epidemiological analysis of excess deaths in Poland as a proxy of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

Material and methods
The absolute number of weekly excess deaths from all causes was calculated as the difference between the number of deaths in 2020 and the average number of deaths in the previous time period (2015-2019). Data were extracted from the repository of the National Statistical Office.

Results
From January until the end of March 2020 (10th week) there were no substantial difference in the number of all-cause deaths in men and women compared to the average from the five previous years (2015-2019). Since the beginning of the pandemic in mid-March 2020 we could observe 76,655 excess deaths. We observed 3 phases of the phenomenon: (1) a 7-month period of relatively low number of weekly excess deaths (in total 13,823) until the turn of September and October, (2) a period of sharp increase until the beginning of November with a peak in the 45th week and 8,746 excess deaths, and (3) the last 7-week period of 2020 with declining rates to the level of 3,843 excess deaths. The number of excess deaths was substantially higher in men than women (41,789 vs. 34,866). Excess deaths in age groups above 60 years in both men and women constituted 99% of all excess deaths. In younger age groups excess deaths were rare. The number of excess deaths was almost twice as high in urban compared to rural area (48,443 vs. 26,974).

Conclusions
The coronavirus epidemic in Poland had its own trajectory. Its course was slower and delayed compared with some Western and European countries. In spite of the seven-month period of a relatively controlled course of the epidemic, Poland was a country with one of the largest increases in excess deaths in 2020.