Regulating the pandemic: the Polish experience

The COVID-19 pandemic presented an unprece­dented global health crisis, provoking diverse regulatory responses from nations worldwide. This paper explores factors contributing to Poland’s comparatively low COVID-19 infection and mortality rates in the initial phase of the pandemic, focusing on the timing of its regu­latory measures, their strictness, and public adherence.
The examination is based on data from the Worldo­meter COVID-19 Database & Our World in Data (cases and deaths), the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) COVID-19 Projections models (mobility and mask use), and the University of Oxford Government Response Stringency Index (regulatory stringency). Comparator countries include France, Germany, Spain, and the UK.
The paper finds that the Polish government was quick to enact public health measures to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Its regulatory actions (e.g. lockdowns) were taken much earlier than in the comparator countries. On several occasions, the Polish government decided to go beyond international good practices and apply measures not recommended by international institutions, e.g. mandatory face masks in all public places or the closure of its borders. Although most restrictions were not unique to Poland, in their totality they constituted a very strict and wide-ranging regime. Additionally, Poland moved much faster from an unrestricted sanitary regime to a very rigorous one. These early interventions reduced population mobility, preventing the initial exponential growth of the pandemic.
While the timing and strictness of the regulatory response were crucial, equally important was the population’s adherence to the new rules. Poles were generally willing to adhere to the restrictions imposed by the go­vernment, as they recognized the seriousness of the situation, which required unprecedented regulatory responses, even though their level of trust in public institutions was low. Adherence was also incentivised by the system of sanctions introduced by the Polish government to accompany the new restrictions.
These elements (i.e. timing, strictness, and public adherence) also explain the subsequent failure of the Polish response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Polish government eased the sanitary regime too early in 2020 and was slow to reintroduce restrictions at the end of 2020 and in 2021. The easing process was too quick, while the tightening was too slow. Adherence also remained low, as a growing number of residents questioned the effectiveness of public health measures or the seriousness of the situation. Although these developments were caused by the need to open the economy and overall societal fatigue with restrictions, political factors also played an important role (e.g. mobilisation of people before the 2020 presidential election and a lack of consistency in risk communication from the government, which influenced popular risk perception).
In summary, the paper provides insights into the effectiveness of regulatory measures in pandemic mitigation and the factors influencing their success. It underscores the importance of maintaining strictness, timing, and adherence to public health measures to mitigate a pandemic’s impact.

DISCLOSURE

The author reports no conflict of interest.