Risk prediction models for difficult cholecystectomy

Gan Chen; Min Li; Baoqiang Cao; Qingwen Xu; Zhigong Zhang

doi:10.5114/wiitm.2022.114539

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General surgery

abstract:

Original paper

Risk prediction models for difficult cholecystectomy

Gan Chen

¹

,

Min Li

²

,

Baoqiang Cao

²

,

Qingwen Xu

³

,

Zhigong Zhang

¹

Department of Vascular Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
Department of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Anhui No. 2 Provincial People’s Hospital, Hefei, Anhui, China
Health Service Centre of Xiaoyaojin Street, Luyang District, Hefei, China

Videosurgery Miniinv 2022; 17 (2): 303–308

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5114/wiitm.2022.114539

Online publish date: 2022/03/16

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Introduction
In some cases, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) may be very difficult and easily converted to laparotomy, causing many complications to patients and prolonging the prognosis time. Thus, to evaluate the difficulty of LC before operation is extremely important.

Aim
To explore the risk factors of difficult cholecystectomy (DC) and to establish a risk prediction model of DC.

Material and methods
The data of 201patients who underwent cholecystectomy from 1 January 2018 to 10 November 2019 were analysed retrospectively. The highest quartile (P75) of cholecystectomy operation time was used as a cutting point of DC (≥ P75) and NLC (< P75). Logistic regression was used to analyse the influencing factors of DC, and its risk model was constructed for prediction.

Results
Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that body mass index (BMI) > 25 kg/m2, white blood cell (WBC) > 10 × 109/l, calculus incarcerated in neck of gallbladder, frequency of acute cholecystitis in the last 2 months > 4 times, thickness of gallbladder wall > 0.5 cm, and maximum diameter of gallstone > 2 cm were independent risk factors for DC. The prediction efficiency of the logistic regression equation was 0.879 (2 = 1.457, p > 0.05).

Conclusions
Based on analysis of risk factors, a logistic risk prediction model for difficult cholecystectomy was established. This model can be used to predict the difficulty of cholecystectomy.

keywords:

Risk prediction models for difficult cholecystectomy

Gan Chen 1 , Min Li 2 , Baoqiang Cao 2 , Qingwen Xu 3 , Zhigong Zhang 1

risk factors, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, postoperative complications, logistic models

Gan Chen

¹

,

Min Li

²

,

Baoqiang Cao

²

,

Qingwen Xu

³

,

Zhigong Zhang

¹