Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay

Marc Lincoln; Niamh Keating; Christopher O’Loughlin; Angus Tam; Molly O’Kane; Finbar MacCarthy; Enda O’Connor

doi:10.5114/ait.2022.120741

eISSN: 1731-2531
ISSN: 1642-5758

Anaesthesiology Intensive Therapy

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Original paper

Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay

Marc Lincoln

¹

,

Niamh Keating

¹

,

Christopher O’Loughlin

¹

,

Angus Tam

¹

,

Molly Murphy O’Kane

¹

,

Finbar MacCarthy

¹

,

Enda O’Connor

¹

St James’s Hospital, Dublin, Ireland

Anaesthesiol Intensive Ther 2022; 54, 4: 310–314

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5114/ait.2022.120741

Online publish date: 2022/11/08

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AMA

Lincoln M, Keating N, O’Loughlin C, et al. Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay. Anaesthesiology Intensive Therapy. 2022;54(4):310-314. doi:10.5114/ait.2022.120741.

APA

Lincoln, M., Keating, N., O’Loughlin, C., Tam, A., O’Kane, M. M.,  & MacCarthy, F. et al. (2022). Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay. Anaesthesiology Intensive Therapy, 54(4), 310-314. https://doi.org/10.5114/ait.2022.120741

Chicago

Lincoln, Marc, Niamh Keating, Christopher O’Loughlin, Angus Tam, Molly M O’Kane, Finbar MacCarthy,  and Enda O’Connor. 2022. "Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay". Anaesthesiology Intensive Therapy 54 (4): 310-314. doi:10.5114/ait.2022.120741.

Harvard

Lincoln, M., Keating, N., O’Loughlin, C., Tam, A., O’Kane, M., MacCarthy, F.,  and O’Connor, E. (2022). Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay. Anaesthesiology Intensive Therapy, 54(4), pp.310-314. https://doi.org/10.5114/ait.2022.120741

MLA

Lincoln, Marc et al. "Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay." Anaesthesiology Intensive Therapy, vol. 54, no. 4, 2022, pp. 310-314. doi:10.5114/ait.2022.120741.

Vancouver

Lincoln M, Keating N, O’Loughlin C, Tam A, O’Kane M, MacCarthy F et al. Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay. Anaesthesiology Intensive Therapy. 2022;54(4):310-314. doi:10.5114/ait.2022.120741.

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Introduction
Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common reason for intensive care admission. While there exist a number of UGIB scoring systems which are used to predict mortality, there are limited studies assessing the discriminative value of these scores in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The purpose of this study was to analyse five different UGIB scoring systems in predicting ICU mortality and length of stay and compare them to two commonly used ICU mortality scoring systems.

Material and methods
We retrospectively identified all patients requiring ICU admission for UGIB to St James’s Hospital over an 18-month period. We calculated their AIM65, Glasgow- Blatchford score, pre- and post-Rockall score, ABC, APACHE II and SOFA scores. We used area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to compare the predictive values of these six scoring systems for ICU and hospital mortality as well as ICU length of stay greater than seven days.

Results
APACHE II showed excellent discriminative value in predicting mortality in ICU patients (AUROC: 0.87; CI: 0.75–0.99) while the SOFA score showed good discriminative value (AUROC: 0.71; CI: 0.50–0.93). None of the UGIB scoring systems predicted mortality in these patients. All scoring systems showed poor discriminative value in predicting ICU length of stay.

Conclusions
We were not able to validate any of these UGIB scoring systems for mortality or length of stay prediction in ICU patients. This study supports the validity of APACHE II as a clinical tool for predicting mortality in ICU patients with UGIB.

keywords:

Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay

Marc Lincoln 1 , Niamh Keating 1 , Christopher O’Loughlin 1 , Angus Tam 1 , Molly Murphy O’Kane 1 , Finbar MacCarthy 1 , Enda O’Connor 1

mortality, intensive care unit, gastrointestinal haemorrhage, length of stay

Marc Lincoln

¹

,

Niamh Keating

¹

,

Christopher O’Loughlin

¹

,

Angus Tam

¹

,

Molly Murphy O’Kane

¹

,

Finbar MacCarthy

¹

,

Enda O’Connor

¹