The impact of an excise tax increase on alcohol consumption: comparison of two surveys carried out before the tax increase in 2021 and another one year later

Introduction
Shaping alcohol affordability belongs to the repertoire of most recommended alcohol-policy tools. In October 2021, a new excise duty act was passed in Poland, which introduced increased rates of alcohol excise tax for each of the years 2022 to 2027. By 1st January 2022, a 10% increase was to be imposed, which was to be followed by 5% increases every year to prevent the negative side-effects of less regular but greater changes in alcohol prices. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the excise-tax increase on the consumption of alcoholic beverages during the first year of the new system’s operation.

Material and methods
Two surveys were conducted on a representative sample of adult residents in Poland - the first month before the planned increase and the second 12 months later.

Results
No major changes in alcohol consumption were noted. The number of abstainers, frequency of drinking beer and wine and the volume of these beverages consumed daily did not change. The frequency of spirits drinking decreased, which was accompanied by an increase in their daily consumption. A particularly significant increase in spirits daily consumption occurred among men, the young and middle-aged, those with secondary or lower education and those in rural areas. Average annual alcohol consumption increased slightly with a significant increase recorded among young people.

Discussion
The excise tax increase did not bring any significant changes in alcohol consumption in Poland, as the inflation rate observed at that time, which affected prices of all other commodities, was almost twice as high than the scale of the increase in the prices of alcoholic beverages.

Conclusions
Increases in excise duty, if it is aimed at decreasing alcohol consumption, should therefore take into account not only the expected increase in the population’s income but also the expected level of inflation.